ANZ analysts point out that the New Zealand economy hasn’t built up the same vulnerabilities on the whole, over this cycle as has been typical.
“Our national debt funding profile is longer term and more resilient; the current account deficit is contained; our net international investment position has improved; and credit growth has been relatively modest. We can thank a mix of good luck and good management. It’s not all wins – we’ve run a goods trade deficit for the past four years, and household debt is at a record high. But overall, the current expansion is looking more sustainable than some we’ve had, and the system is less likely to experience a disruptive outflow of foreign capital than in the past. All up, the New Zealand economy is looking less risky, but certainly not riskless.”
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