Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK politics are again at center stage as the EU this morning signed off on an Article 50 extension to 31 January, but with exit dates on 1 Dec or 1 Jan if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed.
- “The EU now awaits the UK's acceptance of this offer (which it legally must do under the Benn Act, but the tail risk is that the UK rejects it in the hopes of fighting the extension in the courts).
- Later today (around 1pm ET), Parliament will vote on whether or not to hold a general election on 12 December as PM Johnson has proposed. This route requires a 2/3 majority in parliament, which will necessitate close to half of Labour MPs voting in favour of an election. This is unlikely as Labour has said that it will not vote in favour of an election until No Deal is taken off the table in all scenarios, including at the end of 2020.
- The SNP and Lib Dems have also proposed an election motion that would require just 50%+1 of MPs to trigger a 9 December election (ie, without Labour support). If the Conservatives agree to this strategy, and some are suggesting they will, it will be debated and voted on sometime between Tuesday and Thursday this week, and a December election could be on the cards.”