MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD tactical outlook and adopts a neutral bias, expecting the pair to remain in 1.0850-1.1100 range in the near-term.
"The euro has risen marginally over the past week against the US dollar and just climbed back above the 1.1000-level. It has mainly been driven by US dollar weakness following on from recent softer US data releases. The release of the latest US retail sales report for September will be closely watched in the week ahead to assess how household spending is holding up after the surge in Q2. The US rate market is now more confident that the Fed will cut rates again later this month. The dovish tone of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting supported rate cut expectations. The outcome from US-China trade talks could prove pivotal for US dollar performance in the week ahead. If there is a partial trade deal which suspends planned tariff hikes, it could encourage an extended relief rally for EUR/USD beyond the 1.1000-level. In contrast if there remains a disappointing lack of progress and trade tensions are left on a course of confrontation, then recent US dollar weakness could quickly reverse," MUFG adds.
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