Rabobank's analyst supposes that the Battle of Brexit is to be fought in Westminster, not in Brussels as the EU and the UK are treading carefully to avoid any blame when things go wrong, but it remains highly unlikely that a deal will be reached in the next two weeks.
- “Prime Minister Johnson has finally recognized that his Brexit deal entails some uncomfortable trade-offs: we’re getting two borders for the price of one.
- Even though Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, it is very hard to see why Europe/Ireland would eventually accept such a proposal. EU leaders gratefully accepted the UK’s concession of Northern Ireland alignment but did not give one iota in return.
- Meanwhile, both the EU and the UK are treading carefully to avoid any blame when things go wrong and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
- The EU and the UK will continue talking in the run-up to the Oct. 17-18 European Council, but the focus should be on Westminster.
- An election is inevitable and in the interest of each and every party in these negotiations, but it is far from certain that this will solve matters. The three-month extension to Article 50 that is currently being suggested by the Benn Act looks to be too tight. It’s hard to see the UK getting its act together before this deadline.”