The National Association for Business Economics said in a survey released Monday that US GDP growth next year will drop below 2% for the first time since 2016. In the previous survey, the consensus expectation for next year was 2.1% — now it has dropped to 1.8%.
Although the 54 economists surveyed don't yet expect a recession, the dour forecast is the latest example that a slowdown is no longer merely an expectation. It's here now, and it's likely to stay.
Last week, an Institute for Supply Management report found the manufacturing sector contracted for the second straight month in September. One index measured the industry's monthly growth at its lowest since June 2009. The services sector, too, unexpectedly slowed.
The Fed has raised interest rates twice so far this year to keep growth going. But expectations for monetary policy in the remainder of 2019, are all over the place. The NABE economists are split, with 40% anticipating another rate cut this year. Three-quarters of them expect a rate cut by the end of 2020. By comparison, market expectations call for a 78% chance of a quarter percentage point cut this month, and a nearly 90% chance for a decrease in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
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